PlanByWeek

Race Time Predictor

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Your numbers

Marathon (Riegel)

3:40:49

Marathon (VDOT)
3:40:41
Half (Riegel)
1:45:54
VDOT
42
Predictions from a 48:00 10K
RaceRiegelVDOTVDOT pace /mi
Mile6:556:496:49/mi
5K23:0123:087:27/mi
10K48:0048:007:43/mi
Half marathon1:45:541:46:258:07/mi
Marathon3:40:493:40:418:25/mi

The numbers

How it works

This race time predictor gives two predictions for every distance. Riegel's formula, T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)^1.06, projects the example 48:00 10K to a 3:40:49 marathon and a 1:45:54 half.

The VDOT column (42) is usually a little more optimistic for the marathon — 3:40:41 here — and assumes marathon-specific training. Raise the Riegel exponent to 1.08 if your mileage is low.

Questions

FAQ

How accurate are race time predictors?

Within a few percent up to the half; marathon predictions assume full marathon training.

What exponent should I use?

1.06 is Riegel's original; 1.07–1.08 suits runners with less endurance than speed.

Why do Riegel and VDOT differ?

They model fatigue differently: 3:40:49 vs 3:40:41 for the example.

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